|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
Maskhadov's Martyrdom & the Future of Chechen Resistance
“Mujahideen
come and go. Those who fought for Maskhadov can rest. For
those who fight for Allah, the jihad continues.” 1
– Shamil Basayev, Chechen
Separatist Leader
|
|
President Maskhadov, surrounded by the field commanders of the Chechen resistance |
Throughout
history, political assassinations aimed at the physical liquidation
of influential enemy leaders were a strategy of choice for many
states facing separatist conflicts. The strategy usually seeks to
demoralize political opponents and de-legitimize what they stand
for. It allows statesmen to achieve a largely symbolic, yet swift,
“victory” by demonstrating the ability to accurately target and
eliminate enemy movements’ leaders or ideologues.
But
other than the temporary confusion and grief that is often the
immediate result of such targeted assassinations, the strategy’s
record of political success is undoubtedly poor. The assassination
of radical Islamic scholar Dr. Abdullah Azzam in Peshawar, Pakistan,
in 1989 failed to demoralize the Arab-Afghans, and instead led to
the rise of a more radical generation of fighters who later formed
the core of al-Qaeda. Israel’s campaign of “targeted
assassinations” of the leaders of Hizbullah, Hamas, and Islamic
Jihad has failed to subdue resistance and/or achieve any
significant, irreversible Israeli gains. Similarly, America’s
policy of capturing or killing Islamist leaders or former Baathist
officials in Iraq has been equally unsuccessful. In fact, by
focusing solely on the liquidation of the political or ideological
leaders of an insurgency, the root causes of the conflict remain
unaddressed, and are often compounded by increasing radicalization,
rather than demoralization, generated by the assassination.
Although
the conflict in Chechnya is conservatively estimated to have killed
a staggering 100,000 Chechens and created an equal number of
refugees over the past decade, it has usually taken
headline-grabbing acts of violence and/or assassinations of
influential figures to bring the conflict back into the limelight.
The Russian-Chechen war is the world’s “forgotten conflict” par
excellence.
Russia’s
brutality in Chechnya has largely gone unnoticed. In the aftermath
of September 11 and the subsequent US “war on terrorism,”
Russian president Vladimir Putin justified the Russian military’s
brutal policies in Chechnya with the same language used by President
Bush, declaring it a war against terrorism in a lawless region which
threatened to become a safe haven for al-Qaeda fighters and
sympathizers. Putin went so far as to declare that al-Qaeda fighters
were already fighting alongside Chechen rebels 2.
Evidence
suggests a tacit quid pro quo arrangement between the US and
Russian administrations, with the Russians providing intelligence
support for American troops in Afghanistan and the United States
turning a blind eye on Russia’s brutal occupation of Chechnya. In
addition, the European Union (EU) seems powerless to influence
Russia’s Chechen policy, since it is torn between its alleged
disdain for Russia’s violation of Chechen human rights and its
desire to maintain its strategic ties with Moscow 3.
Maskhadov's
assassination will strengthen the radicals on both sides of
the conflict. |
|
The
West’s complacency and its hypocritical stance on the occupation
of Chechnya have effectively granted the Kremlin a free hand in its
dealings with the Chechens. The result has been the continuing
oppression of the Chechen people and the complete disregard of their
grievances, with no hope of international intervention or mediation
on their behalf. This stands in stark contrast to the situation in
East Timor or southern Sudan, where Christian separatist causes were
supported and endorsed by most Western governments, international
organizations, and media outlets.
The
assassination of Chechen President Aslan Maskhadov will doubtless
become a watershed event around which Russian-Chechen hatreds will
coalesce. Maskhadov was a legendary figure to the Chechens, and his
status and prestige as a leader were beyond question. He symbolized
the Chechen independence movement, and his personal history embodies
the hardship faced by the Chechens. Like all Chechens of his
generation, he was born in exile in Kazakhstan after Stalin's
genocidal deportation of the entire Chechen and Ingush nations, in
which half of the 618,000 deportees perished during transportation
and the ensuing typhus epidemic 4.
Maskhadov’s
significance can be traced to his dual role as a pragmatic,
determined statesman and a gallant military commander. During
wartime, he “skillfully managed to restructure a swiftly mobilized
scratch army into an organized, disciplined force capable of
repelling Russian tanks, air power, and artillery 5.”
But he was also at the forefront of peace negotiations in 1995 and
1996, and was always willing to negotiate a close relationship with
Russia, despite his unwavering commitment to Chechen independence.
In recent years, Maskhadov tried to distance himself from the more
radical wing of the Chechen independence movement, lead by Shamil
Basayev, the commander of the Riyad As-Saliheen Sabotage and
Reconnaissance Unit.
Despite
Mashkhadov’s numerous diplomatic overtures and his tireless
efforts at making peace with Russia, all his attempts at negotiation
were rejected by Moscow. Despite his condemnation of the Beslan
school siege in September 2004 and his denial of any personal
involvement in the attack, Russian authorities insisted on treating
him as a terrorist, offering a $10 million reward for his capture 6.
Russian authorities were adamant in their desire to eradicate all
Chechen leadership figures, irrespective of their political
inclinations or ideological affiliation.
|
|
A Russian soldier in Chechnya displays a skull atop his machine gun |
The
martyrdom of Maskhadov is merely the latest manifestation of
Russia's indiscriminate assassination policy. Chechnya’s first
post-Soviet president, Dzhokhar Dudayev, was killed by Russian
forces during the first war in 1996, and his successor, Zelimkhan
Yandarbiev, died in a car bombing orchestrated by Russian
intelligence in February 2004, while in exile in Qatar 7.
Khattab, the famous Arab guerrilla commander, was killed by a
poisoned letter in April 2002, and his successor, Abu Al-Waleed
Al-Ghamdi, was killed in a battle with Russian military forces in
April 2004.
A
Conflict Radicalized
While
some analysts believe that Maskhadov's murder is a vindication of
Moscow’s iron-fisted policy in Chechnya and a great blow to the
rebels, a closer look at the implications of Russia’s
assassination policy and the dynamics of Muslim liberation struggles
in the Northern Caucasus suggests otherwise. Despite Maskhadov’s
symbolic importance and the widespread legitimacy he enjoyed among
his countrymen, it is unclear how successful he had been in recent
years in restraining the more radical elements of the Chechen
resistance. As a retraining influence who could have paved the way
for a peaceful resolution to the conflict, Maskhadov's assassination
will undoubtedly strengthen the radicals on both sides of the
conflict. With Maskhadov gone, Shamil Basayev—who has claimed
responsibility for the Moscow theater and Beslan school sieges that
together left nearly 500 people dead—is likely to play an
increasingly powerful role in the Chechen resistance.
Basayev
recently called upon the Chechens to recognize the former head of
Chechnya’s Islamic courts, Abdul-Khalim Saydullayev, as their new
president 8.
Saydullayev's ascension to power seems to have been the result of a
2002 agreement between Maskhadov and other Chechen leaders. Some
analysts predict that Saydullayev will serve as a figurehead for the
now-radicalized independence movement, with real power wielded by
Basayev9.
This is a view popularized by the Russian authorities, as expressed
by the Russian-appointed Chechen Mufti, Akhmad-Khadzhi Shamayev, who
claimed that Saydullayev would be “a puppet in the hands of
Basayev and the militant young generation of extremists.10”
The
Kremlin's hawks can now claim that, given Basayev’s increasing
influence, they have no viable negotiating partner, and hence, they
are engaged in a life-and-death struggle with Islamic
“terrorists” led by Basayev, rather than with domestic fighters
led by a popularly elected Chechen president. As such, hardliners in
the Kremlin and among the Russian military establishment will feel
free to tighten their grip on Chechnya, now that the man who was
recognized as a legitimate representative of the Chechen cause is
dead 11.
Despite
all the speculation, there is no doubt that Maskhadov’s
assassination will usher in a new period of polarization,
intransigence, and the triumph of those with an apocalyptic vision
for and a zero-sum understanding of the Russian-Chechen war.
The
Dynamics of Conflict
Islamist hardliners and Kremlin hawks are now unconstrained by any moderating influences. |
|
But
Maskhadov's assassination is also likely to have regional
repercussions for the Northern Caucasus, given that the dynamics of
the conflict in Chechnya are almost the same as in the rest of the
region. Indeed, the Chechen war of liberation is understood to be a
central theme around which the region's other struggles manifest.
The
history of the Northern Caucasus is marked by the primacy of
religious identification, combined with a rebellious spirit that has
generated heroic resistance. Throughout the decades, Islam has
worked as a unifying force for the Northern Caucasians in their wars
against the Russian “infidel” colonizer. The collapse of the
Soviet Union witnessed an increase in religiosity throughout the
region, and the growing prominence of a more fundamentalist
Islamism. Hence, current events in the troubled region should be
looked at in the historical context, as a response to centuries of
genocidal Russian policies aimed at the subjugation of the Muslims
of the Caucasus, rather than being simply viewed as
"terrorism."
Conclusions
With
the assassination of Maskhadov, another violent chapter in the
troubled history of Chechnya is about to unfold, with Islamist
hardliners and Kremlin hawks unconstrained by any moderating
influences. While Chechnya remains the locus of regional politics,
the smaller republics of Dagestan, North Ossetia, and Ingushetia are
facing similar problems—marginalization, popular dissatisfaction,
ethnic tensions, poverty, corrupt local leaders, and the heavy-hand
of Russian hegemony. Conflict in the Caucasus is further complicated
by superpower rivalry and geopolitical contestation over oil
resources.
The
Northern Caucasus is seen by Russia as its strategic backyard, and
by the United States as a fertile ground for the containment of any
potential expansion of the Russian sphere of influence. Indeed, the
presence of US military bases in Central Asia and US advisors in
nearby Georgia is a telling example of America’s interest, not
just in fighting Islamism, but in containing Russia. This intricate
security complex, coupled with the absence of any serious attempt at
dialogue that is the inevitable consequence of Maskhadov's
assassination, suggests the Northern Caucasus will remain a hotbed
of simmering hostilities and violent rivalry. The assassination of
Maskhadov, a prominent figurehead with popular legitimacy and the
only credible Chechen leader calling for a peaceful resolution of
the conflict, is bound to fuel increasing resentment of Russia's
heavy-handed domination of the region, and may well trigger an
upsurge in anti-Russian activities.
Kareem
M. Kamel is an Egyptian
analyst based in Cairo, Egypt . He has an MA in International
Relations and is specialized in security studies, decision-making,
nuclear politics, and Middle East politics. He is currently a PhD
candidate at the American University in London, and a teaching
assistant to the Political Science Department at the American
University in Cairo .
[1]
“Chechen
warlord vows fight against Russia will continue,”
Turkish Press March 9, 2005
[2]
Anatol Lieven, “Chechnya
After September 11th,” Carnegie Endowment for International
Peace March 9, 2002
[3]
“Chechen Rebel’s Killing Divides Europeans,” Turkish
Press March 9, 2005
[4]
Marie Bennigsen, “Chechnya: Political Development and Strategic
Implications for the North Caucasus,” Central Asian Survey 18
(December 1999)
[5]
“Obituary : Aslan Maskhadov,” BBC News
[6]
Ibid.
[7]
Steven Lee Myers, “Russians Kill Leader of Chechen Rebels,”
International Herald Tribune March 9, 2005
[8]
“Chechens Urged to Recognize New Leader,” Al-Jazeera
(English) March 10, 2005
[9]
Jim Heintz, “Islamic
Fundamentalist Judge Emerges as Successor to Chechen Rebel Commander,”
Sign on San Diego March 10, 2005
[10]
“Basayev
Remains Real Leader of Chechen Extremists – Mufti,”
Felist.com March 11, 2005
[11]
“Maskhadov’s Death Augurs Longer War,”
Al-Jazeera (English) March 8, 2005
|
|
|
|
|
|
